Frederico Ferreira Silva vs Luca van Assche prediction for July 19, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Luca van Assche 0 - Frederico Ferreira Silva 0. Frederico Ferreira Silva is favored with a 67.9% win probability.
Luca van Assche
1442
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Frederico Ferreira Silva
1658
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Luca van AsscheFrederico Ferreira Silva
Hard
Surface
Estoril
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 62.9% (13,005 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Estoril
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Frederico Ferreira Silva
Luca van Assche
Frederico Ferreira Silva leads by 216 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Frederico Ferreira Silva SPW
62.3%
Below tour avg
Luca van Assche SPW
57.9%
Below tour avg
● Frederico Ferreira Silva has a significant serve advantage (+4.4%)
Odds & Edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Frederico Ferreira Silva holds a commanding 216-point Elo advantage on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Frederico Ferreira Silva has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Frederico Ferreira Silva at 68%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Frederico Ferreira Silva 67.9%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded Tennis 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the Tennis 2026 season report card.