Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann prediction for May 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Yannick Hanfmann 0 - Joao Fonseca 0. Joao Fonseca is favored with a 56.4% win probability.
Yannick Hanfmann
1575
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Joao Fonseca
1665
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Yannick HanfmannJoao Fonseca
Clay
Surface
ATP Hamburg Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.5% (2,366 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Hamburg Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Joao Fonseca
Yannick Hanfmann
Joao Fonseca leads by 90 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Joao Fonseca SPW
62.3%
Below tour avg
Yannick Hanfmann SPW
60.2%
Below tour avg
● Joao Fonseca has a slight serve edge (+2.1%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Joao Fonseca ML
-224
Model: 56%
Edge: -12.8%
Yannick Hanfmann ML
+204
Model: 44%
Edge: +10.7%
Model Projection
Yannick Hanfmann ML +204 · +10.7% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Joao Fonseca has a moderate 90-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Joao Fonseca has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Joao Fonseca 56.4%
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More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →