Kilian Feldbausch vs Ignacio Buse prediction for July 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Ignacio Buse 0 - Kilian Feldbausch 0. Kilian Feldbausch is favored with a 55.9% win probability.
Ignacio Buse
1536
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Kilian Feldbausch
1650
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Ignacio BuseKilian Feldbausch
Hard
Surface
Generali Open Kitzbühel
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 50.2% (13,409 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Generali Open Kitzbühel
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Kilian Feldbausch
Ignacio Buse
Kilian Feldbausch leads by 114 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Kilian Feldbausch SPW
63.9%
Above tour avg
Ignacio Buse SPW
61.2%
Below tour avg
● Kilian Feldbausch has a slight serve edge (+2.7%)
Odds & Edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Kilian Feldbausch holds a commanding 114-point Elo advantage on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Kilian Feldbausch has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded Tennis 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the Tennis 2026 season report card.