Lorenzo Musetti vs Rafael Jodar prediction for July 31, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Rafael Jodar 0 - Lorenzo Musetti 0. Lorenzo Musetti is favored with a 51.1% win probability.
Rafael Jodar
1659
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Lorenzo Musetti
1723
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Rafael JodarLorenzo Musetti
Hard
Surface
ATP Washington Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 50.3% (14,793 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Washington Open
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Lorenzo Musetti
Rafael Jodar
Lorenzo Musetti leads by 64 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Lorenzo Musetti SPW
66.0%
Above tour avg
Rafael Jodar SPW
64.7%
Above tour avg
● Lorenzo Musetti has a slight serve edge (+1.3%)
Odds & Edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Lorenzo Musetti has a moderate 64-point Elo edge on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Lorenzo Musetti has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded Tennis 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the Tennis 2026 season report card.