FINAL: Ben Shelton 16 — Martin Damm Jr 14. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Ben Shelton 0 - Martin Damm Jr 0 (Martin Damm Jr at 58.5% win probability).
Ben Shelton
1726
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Martin Damm Jr
1773
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Ben SheltonMartin Damm Jr
Hard
Surface
Mubadala Citi DC Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.6% (14,059 games)
Projected
Ben Shelton 0 — Martin Damm Jr 0
Actual
Ben Shelton 16 — Martin Damm Jr 14
Pick Results
Martin Damm Jr +2.5 games +100spreadWIN+0.50u
Match Context
Tournament
Mubadala Citi DC Open
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Martin Damm Jr
Ben Shelton
Martin Damm Jr leads by 47 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Martin Damm Jr SPW
72.4%
Above tour avg
Ben Shelton SPW
69.6%
Above tour avg
● Martin Damm Jr has a slight serve edge (+2.8%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Martin Damm Jr ML
+200
Model: 58%
Edge: +25.2%
Ben Shelton ML
-250
Model: 42%
Edge: -29.9%
Model Projection
Martin Damm Jr ML +200 · +25.2% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Martin Damm Jr has a moderate 47-point Elo edge on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Martin Damm Jr has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Martin Damm Jr 58.5%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded Tennis 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the Tennis 2026 season report card.