Mili Poljicak vs Buvaysar Gadamauri prediction for April 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Buvaysar Gadamauri 0 - Mili Poljicak 0. Mili Poljicak is favored with a 50.5% win probability.
Buvaysar Gadamauri
1496
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Mili Poljicak
1479
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Buvaysar GadamauriMili Poljicak
Hard
Surface
ATP Challenger Shymkent - QF
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.4% (1,401 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Challenger Shymkent - QF
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Mili Poljicak
Buvaysar Gadamauri
Buvaysar Gadamauri leads by 17 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Mili Poljicak SPW
61.2%
Below tour avg
Buvaysar Gadamauri SPW
62.5%
Below tour avg
● Buvaysar Gadamauri has a slight serve edge (+1.3%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Mili Poljicak ML
-154
Model: 50%
Edge: -10.1%
Buvaysar Gadamauri ML
+134
Model: 50%
Edge: +6.7%
Model Projection
Buvaysar Gadamauri ML +134 · +6.7% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (17-point Elo gap)
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Buvaysar Gadamauri has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Mili Poljicak 50.5%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →