Pablo Carreno Busta vs Thiago Agustin Tirante prediction for May 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Thiago Agustin Tirante 0 - Pablo Carreno Busta 0. Pablo Carreno Busta is favored with a 58.3% win probability.
Thiago Agustin Tirante
1504
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Pablo Carreno Busta
1460
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Thiago Agustin TirantePablo Carreno Busta
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.4% (3,925 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Pablo Carreno Busta
Thiago Agustin Tirante
Thiago Agustin Tirante leads by 44 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Pablo Carreno Busta SPW
63.7%
Above tour avg
Thiago Agustin Tirante SPW
61.7%
Below tour avg
● Pablo Carreno Busta has a slight serve edge (+2.0%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Pablo Carreno Busta ML
-280
Model: 58%
Edge: -15.3%
Thiago Agustin Tirante ML
+253
Model: 42%
Edge: +13.3%
Model Projection
Thiago Agustin Tirante ML +253 · +13.3% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Thiago Agustin Tirante has a moderate 44-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Pablo Carreno Busta has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Pablo Carreno Busta 58.3%
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →