Raul Brancaccio vs Marco Cecchinato prediction for April 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Marco Cecchinato 0 - Raul Brancaccio 0. Raul Brancaccio is favored with a 68.3% win probability.
Marco Cecchinato
1564
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Raul Brancaccio
1561
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Marco CecchinatoRaul Brancaccio
Hard
Surface
ATP Challenger Ostrava - QF
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.4% (1,401 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Challenger Ostrava - QF
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Raul Brancaccio
Marco Cecchinato
Marco Cecchinato leads by 3 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Raul Brancaccio SPW
66.5%
Above tour avg
Marco Cecchinato SPW
55.2%
Below tour avg
● Raul Brancaccio has a significant serve advantage (+11.2%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Raul Brancaccio ML
+133
Model: 68%
Edge: +25.4%
Marco Cecchinato ML
-153
Model: 32%
Edge: -28.7%
Model Projection
Raul Brancaccio ML +133 · +25.4% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (3-point Elo gap)
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Raul Brancaccio has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Raul Brancaccio at 68%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Raul Brancaccio 68.3%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →