Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Felix Auger-Aliassime prediction for May 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Felix Auger-Aliassime 0 - Roman Andres Burruchaga 0. Felix Auger-Aliassime is favored with a 52.5% win probability.
Felix Auger-Aliassime
1650
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Roman Andres Burruchaga
1504
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Felix Auger-AliassimeRoman Andres Burruchaga
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.1% (6,716 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Roman Andres Burruchaga
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Felix Auger-Aliassime leads by 146 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Roman Andres Burruchaga SPW
60.2%
Below tour avg
Felix Auger-Aliassime SPW
59.6%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Roman Andres Burruchaga ML
+248
Model: 48%
Edge: +18.8%
Felix Auger-Aliassime ML
-280
Model: 52%
Edge: -21.2%
Model Projection
Roman Andres Burruchaga ML +248 · +18.8% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Felix Auger-Aliassime holds a commanding 146-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Roman Andres Burruchaga has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Felix Auger-Aliassime 52.5%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded Tennis 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the Tennis 2026 season report card.