Tommy Paul vs Kamil Majchrzak prediction for July 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Kamil Majchrzak 0 - Tommy Paul 0. Tommy Paul is favored with a 66.5% win probability.
Kamil Majchrzak
1584
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Tommy Paul
1653
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Kamil MajchrzakTommy Paul
Hard
Surface
ATP Washington Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 65.0% (14,259 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Washington Open
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Tommy Paul
Kamil Majchrzak
Tommy Paul leads by 70 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Tommy Paul SPW
67.2%
Above tour avg
Kamil Majchrzak SPW
62.3%
Below tour avg
● Tommy Paul has a significant serve advantage (+4.9%)
Odds & Edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Tommy Paul has a moderate 70-point Elo edge on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Tommy Paul has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Tommy Paul at 66%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded Tennis 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the Tennis 2026 season report card.