Portland Fire vs Phoenix Mercury prediction for August 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Phoenix Mercury 89.8 - Portland Fire 85.7. Phoenix Mercury is favored with a 63.5% win probability. The spread is -3.5 and the total is 171.5.
Phoenix Mercury
89.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 171.5
Portland Fire
85.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
Phoenix MercuryPortland Fire
-3.5
Spread (Phoenix Mercury)
171.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 64.9% (285 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Portland Fire
788693
Phoenix Mercury
839097
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets WNBA Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded WNBA 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the WNBA 2026 season report card.