World Cup 2026 · Team

United States World Cup 2026 Projections

Monte Carlo tournament simulation · 10,000 bracket runs · updated daily

Eliminated — Round of 16

Tournament Outlook

1764
Elo rating
0.4%
Champion
1.4%
Reach final
4.7%
Reach semis
15.2%
Reach quarters

United States Match Predictions & Results

DateStageOpponentMatch PredictionResult
2026-06-12First Stagevs ParaguayParaguay vs United StatesW 4–1
2026-06-19First Stagevs AustraliaAustralia vs United StatesW 2–0
2026-06-25First Stage@ TurkeyUnited States vs TurkeyL 2–3
2026-07-01Round of 32vs Bosnia and HerzegovinaBosnia and Herzegovina vs United StatesW 2–0
2026-07-06Round of 16vs BelgiumBelgium vs United StatesL 1–4
How these projections are generated: every United States fixture is modeled with an Elo-seeded Dixon-Coles bivariate-Poisson engine, then the full 48-team bracket is Monte Carlo simulated (10,000 runs) for champion and advancement odds. Probabilities are Bayesian-calibrated. Tournament hub → · How the Soccer model works → · Full methodology →