Tournament Outlook
1764
Elo rating
0.4%
Champion
1.4%
Reach final
4.7%
Reach semis
15.2%
Reach quarters
United States Match Predictions & Results
| Date | Stage | Opponent | Match Prediction | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | First Stage | vs Paraguay | Paraguay vs United States | W 4–1 |
| 2026-06-19 | First Stage | vs Australia | Australia vs United States | W 2–0 |
| 2026-06-25 | First Stage | @ Turkey | United States vs Turkey | L 2–3 |
| 2026-07-01 | Round of 32 | vs Bosnia and Herzegovina | Bosnia and Herzegovina vs United States | W 2–0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Round of 16 | vs Belgium | Belgium vs United States | L 1–4 |
How these projections are generated: every United States fixture is modeled with an
Elo-seeded Dixon-Coles bivariate-Poisson engine,
then the full 48-team bracket is Monte Carlo simulated (10,000 runs) for champion and
advancement odds. Probabilities are Bayesian-calibrated.
Tournament hub → ·
How the Soccer model works → ·
Full methodology →