Mercyhurst vs Notre Dame prediction for November 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Notre Dame 79.8 - Mercyhurst 56.1. Notre Dame is favored with a 98.5% win probability. The spread is -21.5 and the total is 136.5.
Notre Dame
79.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 136.5
Mercyhurst
56.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
Notre DameMercyhurst
-21.5
Spread (Notre Dame)
136.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 98.9% (4,047 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Mercyhurst
475665
Notre Dame
718089
Projected
Notre Dame 79.8 — Mercyhurst 56.1
Actual
Notre Dame 83 — Mercyhurst 56
Spread Analysis
Totals Analysis
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets College Basketball Monte Carlo engine. This game was simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded CBB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the CBB 2026 season report card.