Fleetwood, Tommy vs McIlroy, Rory prediction for October 14, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects McIlroy, Rory 53 - Fleetwood, Tommy 46. Fleetwood, Tommy is favored with a 54.3% win probability. Fleetwood, Tommy wins more simulations despite the lower average score. The spread is -0.12.
McIlroy, Rory
+1.69
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • DP World India Championship
Fleetwood, Tommy
+1.56
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
McIlroy, RoryFleetwood, Tommy
-105
Best Odds
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Fleetwood, Tommy
394653
McIlroy, Rory
465360
Tournament Context
Event
DP World India Championship
Course
Delhi GC
Field
144 players
Wind
6 mph
Temp
84°F
Conditions
normal (+0.3)
Player Profile — Fleetwood, Tommy
Strokes Gained
+1.56/round
World Class
Course Fit
neutral
+0.028 SG adj
Expected Finish
46th / 144
Matchup Analysis
Fleetwood, Tommy
+1.56 SG
EF 46th
Skill Gap
-0.12 SG/round
tight skill advantage for McIlroy, Rory
McIlroy, Rory
+1.69 SG
EF 53th · World Class
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded GOLF 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the GOLF 2026 season report card.