PGA Tour Golf

James, Ben vs Thompson, Davis Prediction

September 18, 2026

10,000 Monte Carlo simulations

James, Ben vs Thompson, Davis prediction for September 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Thompson, Davis 130 - James, Ben 34. James, Ben is favored with a 68.9% win probability. James, Ben wins more simulations despite the lower average score. The spread is -0.15.

Thompson, Davis
+0.75
Strokes Gained / Round
VS H2H • Biltmore Championship Asheville
James, Ben
+0.61
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
31.1%
68.9%
Thompson, DavisJames, Ben
-110
Best Odds
FINALJames, Ben (T10) def Thompson, Davis (T110)

Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile

James, Ben
273441
Thompson, Davis
123130137

Tournament Context

Event
Biltmore Championship Asheville
Course
The Cliffs at Walnut Cove
Field
131 players

Player Profile — James, Ben

Strokes Gained
+0.61/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
good
+0.172 SG adj
Expected Finish
34th / 131

Matchup Analysis

James, Ben
+0.61 SG
EF 34th
Skill Gap
-0.15 SG/round
tight skill advantage for Thompson, Davis
Thompson, Davis
+0.75 SG
EF 130th · Above Avg
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Model Edge & Sizing

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Edge Analysis

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Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded GOLF 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the GOLF 2026 season report card.

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