Jarvis, Casey vs Grillo, Emiliano prediction for July 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Grillo, Emiliano 92 - Jarvis, Casey 77. Jarvis, Casey is favored with a 61.5% win probability. The spread is 0.37.
Grillo, Emiliano
+0.39
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • 3M Open
Jarvis, Casey
+0.54
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Grillo, EmilianoJarvis, Casey
-125
Best Odds
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Jarvis, Casey
707784
Grillo, Emiliano
859299
Tournament Context
Event
3M Open
Course
TPC Twin Cities
Field
144 players
Wind
12 mph
Temp
81°F
Conditions
harder (+0.6)
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1
Jarvis's +0.369 SG/round skill advantage is the largest on the slate; at 11.0% edge and -125 odds, this is a premium skill matchup with textbook value.
Key Factors
- Model edge: +11.0% probability (61.7% vs 55.6%) — clear edge vs large skill gap
- Skill advantage: +0.369 SG/round — largest skill gap in matchup set (translates to ~1.3 strokes per round)
- Course fit: Jarvis +0.054 vs Grillo +0.093 = slight Grillo benefit, but overweighed by skill
- Odds -125 (fanduel): implies 55.56%, our model 61.66% = +610 bps edge
- Expected finish: Jarvis 76.6 (9-stroke advantage) confirms skill difference is real
Risk Factors
- Grillo's course fit advantage (+0.093) could reduce edge if course conditions favor his profile
- Jarvis in 76-77 expected finish (better players); Grillo (85+); ensures both have tournament relevance
- Grillo is streaky; could overperform if tournament conditions suit him
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →