Li, Haotong vs Molinari, Francesco prediction for September 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Molinari, Francesco 0 - Li, Haotong 44. Li, Haotong is favored with a 72.0% win probability. The spread is -0.13.
Molinari, Francesco
+0.00
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Amgen Irish Open
Li, Haotong
-0.31
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Molinari, FrancescoLi, Haotong
-125
Best Odds
Tournament Context
Event
Amgen Irish Open
Course
Trump International Golf Links & Hotel Ireland
Field
135 players
Player Profile — Li, Haotong
Strokes Gained
-0.31/round
Below Avg
Course Fit
good
+0.242 SG adj
Expected Finish
44th / 135
Matchup Analysis
Li, Haotong
-0.31 SG
EF 44th
Skill Gap
-0.13 SG/round
tight skill advantage for Molinari, Francesco
Molinari, Francesco
+0.00 SG
EF 0th · Tour Avg
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded GOLF 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the GOLF 2026 season report card.