Meissner, Mac vs Kohles, Ben prediction for August 4, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Kohles, Ben 0 - Meissner, Mac 71. Meissner, Mac is favored with a 55.8% win probability. The spread is 0.11.
Kohles, Ben
+0.00
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Wyndham Championship
Meissner, Mac
+0.79
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Kohles, BenMeissner, Mac
-110
Best Odds
Tournament Context
Event
Wyndham Championship
Course
Sedgefield CC
Field
147 players
Wind
12 mph
Temp
89°F
Conditions
harder (+0.6)
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +0
Meissner has clean skill edge (+0.10 SG/round) and better expected finish (72.2 vs 72.8), but tight finish positions and -110 odds limit conviction. Valid small edge worth exploring but not high-conviction.
Key Factors
- Skill gap: Meissner +0.10 SG/round confirmed in field
- Expected finish: only 0.6 positions apart (72.2 vs 72.8)
- Model edge: 55.7% vs 52.4% = 3.3pp probability edge
- Course fit: Kohles slight advantage (-0.052) reduces edge slightly
- Odds -110: fairly priced; no significant overvalue at +3.3pp edge
Risk Factors
- Finish position parity (0.6 positions) suggests matchup could go either way
- Both players expected in 72-73 range; high variance in single match
- 3.3pp edge is modest; -110 odds need >52.4% hit rate to profit
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded Golf 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the Golf 2026 season report card.