Tosti, Alejandro vs Li, Haotong prediction for October 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Li, Haotong 72 - Tosti, Alejandro 58. Tosti, Alejandro is favored with a 52.1% win probability. Tosti, Alejandro wins more simulations despite the lower average score. The spread is 0.21.
Li, Haotong
-0.13
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • VidantaWorld Mexico Open
Tosti, Alejandro
+0.00
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Li, HaotongTosti, Alejandro
+104
Best Odds
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Tosti, Alejandro
515865
Li, Haotong
657279
Tournament Context
Event
VidantaWorld Mexico Open
Course
Vidanta Vallarta
Field
120 players
Wind
8 mph
Temp
85°F
Conditions
harder (+0.3)
Matchup Analysis
Tosti, Alejandro
+0.00 SG
EF 58th
Skill Gap
+0.21 SG/round
tight skill advantage for Tosti, Alejandro
Li, Haotong
-0.13 SG
EF 72th · Below Avg
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. This game was simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded GOLF 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the GOLF 2026 season report card.