Heretics Academy vs NightBirds prediction for September 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 20,000 game iterations and projects NightBirds 0 - Heretics Academy 2. Heretics Academy is favored with a 65.3% win probability. Most likely series score: 2-0 (Best of 3).
NightBirds
0
Projected Maps
VS
Bo3 • EMEA Masters
Heretics Academy
2
Projected Maps
Series Win Probability
NightBirdsHeretics Academy
2-0
Most Likely Score
MEDIUM
Confidence
20,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 67.1% (19,456 games)
Projected
NightBirds 0 — Heretics Academy 2
Actual
NightBirds 1 — Heretics Academy 2
Team Profiles
Heretics Academy
Early
65%
Mid
66%
Late
66%
Elo: 1791 · 🗡️ Skirmish · Record: 4-6 (40%)
NightBirds
Early
70%
Mid
71%
Late
72%
Elo: 1938 · ⚡ Early Aggro · Record: 9-1 (90%)
Score Distribution
Heretics Academy winsNightBirds wins
0-2
20.2%
1-2
14.4%
2-0
40.6%
2-1
24.8%
Advantage Breakdown
Key Factors
Market Odds
Heretics Academy
-317
NightBirds
+312
championship_v2.2 · 20,000 sims · Uncertainty: 0.26
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets League of Legends Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 20,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded LOL 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the LOL 2026 season report card.