FINAL: TEX 5 — BAL 10. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected TEX 3.7 - BAL 3.7 (TEX at 51.1% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.4 total runs.
TEX
3.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
BAL
3.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
TEXBAL
-1.5
Run Line (TEX)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
BALTEX L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.4% (3,215 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BAL
246
TEX
246
Projected
TEX 3.7 — BAL 3.7
Actual
TEX 5 — BAL 10
Pick Results
TEX F5 MLf5_mlLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Cade Povich L
BAL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF43%92 mph17% whiff
CU21%76 mph39% whiff
SL16%86 mph32% whiff
Kumar Rocker R
TEX
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SL38%83 mph40% whiff
SI29%94 mph8% whiff
FC15%90 mph19% whiff
Weather Impact
Globe Life Field
96°F7 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.070 Total: 1.036
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
BAL
4.35ERA
4.02FIP
8.66K/9
3.76BB/9
1.33WHIP
TEX
4.15ERA
4.31FIP
8.40K/9
3.75BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-15.6% EV
-119
NRFI NRFI
+11.5% EV
-105
F5_ML HOME
-8.1% EV
-130
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
+7.8% EV
-101
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-7.6% EV
+157
F5_ML AWAY
-3.9% EV
+100
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BAL F5
2.0 runs
40.2% win
TEX F5
2.1 runs
42.1% win
F5 Total
4.1
NRFI
62.0%
YRFI
38.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.76
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
85%
Over 1.5 HR
57%
No HR
15%
Pete Alonso BAL28.5%
ISO: 0.229 | Barrel: 11.9% | vs Kumar Rocker | Park: 1.02x
Corey Seager TEX28.4%
ISO: 0.132 | Barrel: 10.9% | vs Cade Povich | Park: 1.02x
Jake Burger TEX25.7%
ISO: 0.225 | Barrel: 9.0% | vs Cade Povich | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Cade Povich
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Kumar Rocker
0.0 K projected
TEX | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BAL8 injured
Blaze Alexander 3B10-DAY-IL
Felix Bautista RP60-DAY-IL
Samuel Basallo C10-DAY-IL
Chris Bassitt SP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Helsley RP60-DAY-IL
Colin Selby RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
TEX8 injured
Jack Leiter SP60-DAY-IL
Danny Jansen C60-DAY-IL
Jakob Junis RP15-DAY-IL
Josh Jung 3B10-DAY-IL
Jose Corniell RP60-DAY-IL
Jalen Beeks RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN
Rocker and Povich are close to a wash on paper, so the game offers no ML edge, but the 11.5% NRFI edge landing historically well-supported makes this one of the cleaner NRFI plays on the slate.
Key Factors
- Rocker (4.41 ERA, home) and Povich (4.22 ERA, away) are essentially even — no exploitable SP mismatch, model and market both near 50/50
- NRFI edge of 11.5% (model 57.1%) is the strongest signal on this game, sitting inside the GREEN NRFI historical support
- Total UNDER edge of 7.8% is a secondary supportive signal given the even pitching matchup
- 95.5F heat with modest 6.9mph wind at Globe Life (retractable roof) is a moderate scoring boost (HR mult 1.07) that the market total may already reflect
Risk Factors
- Total bet type currently disabled in calibration engine — NRFI is the only truly actionable market here
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TEX 51.1%
-7.6 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-7.6 pts
Total
8.0
+7.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.