CHC vs BAL prediction for July 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BAL 3.0 - CHC 4.0. CHC is favored with a 54.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 7.0 total runs.
BAL
3.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
CHC
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
BALCHC
-1.5
Run Line (BAL)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.2% (2,789 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CHC
246
BAL
135
Projected
BAL 3.0 — CHC 4.0
Actual
BAL 3 — CHC 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
David Peterson L
CHC
SI29%92 mph11% whiff
SL24%86 mph28% whiff
FF24%92 mph18% whiff
Trevor Rogers L
BAL
FF44%93 mph21% whiff
CH23%87 mph21% whiff
ST12%78 mph31% whiff
Weather Impact
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
86°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.012 Total: 1.004
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
CHC
4.04ERA
5.13FIP
8.17K/9
4.04BB/9
1.34WHIP
BAL
4.34ERA
4.01FIP
8.76K/9
3.44BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 9.5
-43.0% EV
-120
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
+36.3% EV
-102
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-29.7% EV
+152
F5_ML HOME
-24.9% EV
-135
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-23.7% EV
-185
F5 UNDER 5.5
+20.7% EV
-125
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CHC F5
2.1 runs
49.7% win
BAL F5
1.5 runs
32.2% win
F5 Total
3.7
NRFI
63.8%
YRFI
36.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.70
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
87%
Over 1.5 HR
62%
No HR
13%
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC30.0%
ISO: 0.138 | Barrel: 13.0% | vs Trevor Rogers | Park: 1.03x
Ian Happ CHC30.0%
ISO: 0.192 | Barrel: 10.4% | vs Trevor Rogers | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Dansby Swanson CHC30.0%
ISO: 0.172 | Barrel: 11.7% | vs Trevor Rogers | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
David Peterson
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Trevor Rogers
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CHC8 injured
Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL
Phil Maton RP15-DAY-IL
Jameson Taillon SP15-DAY-IL
Edward Cabrera SP15-DAY-IL
Matt Shaw RF10-DAY-IL
Ethan Roberts RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
BAL8 injured
Keegan Akin RP15-DAY-IL
Ryan Helsley RP15-DAY-IL
Yaramil Hiraldo RP60-DAY-IL
Felix Bautista RP60-DAY-IL
Colin Selby RP60-DAY-IL
Chris Bassitt SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEANYELLOW ZONE49.9% WR (n=5)
Model favors CHC (away) 54.6% despite Peterson's 7.29 ERA (terrible) vs Rogers' 5.08 ERA (mediocre)—CHC's offensive superiority (3.98 runs projected vs BAL 2.98) overcomes massive pitcher disadvantage. Market has BAL at -129 (56.5% implied). F5_ML AWAY (18.2% edge, 56.8% prob) is cleaner than full-game ML (7.1% edge), as Peterson needs only 2-3 solid innings vs full outing. Prefer F5 over full-game exposure.
Key Factors
- Peterson (CHC away) has horrific 7.29 ERA (abysmal); Rogers (BAL home) has mediocre 5.08 ERA—2.21 ERA gap against the model's recommendation to take CHC
- Pitcher attribution: CHC has PITCHER DISADVANTAGE despite being favored by model—value comes from CHC offensive lineup (3.98 runs) overpowering BAL (2.98 runs), not from SP quality
- F5_ML AWAY shows 18.2% edge (56.8% prob) vs full-game 7.1% edge (51% prob)—Peterson likely can't survive 6+ innings given ERA; first 5 innings favor CHC fresh arms approach
- CHC lineup (Crow-Armstrong, Happ, Swanson all 30% HR candidates) provides star power; BAL lineup lacks comparable depth
- NRFI 19.5% edge (56.4% prob) also strong—both pitchers at risk of early trouble, favoring no runs first inning setup
Risk Factors
- Peterson's 7.29 ERA is legitimately terrible; if he implodes early, market (BAL -129) could be right to overvalue home field
- YELLOW zone ML at 49.9% WR on only 5 samples—small sample, high variance
- BAL bullpen (4.34 ERA) is above-average; if game stays close late, they have resources to shut down CHC
PITCHER MISMATCHYELLOW ZONEF5 ADVANTAGESHARP SUPPORT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHC 54.6%
-29.7 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-29.7 pts
Total
9.5
+36.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →