Who is predicted to win NYY vs TB on July 9, 2026?

Based on 10,000 Pitch Sim v5.3 Monte Carlo simulations, TB is favored with a 50.6% win probability. The simulation's mean projected score is TB 3.4 - NYY 3.4.

How did NYY vs TB on July 9, 2026 end?

Final score: TB 4 - NYY 12. This page now shows our pre-game projection alongside the actual outcome for transparency — every Olympus Bets projection is preserved with its result.

How does Olympus Bets generate sports predictions?

Every projection is produced by a league-specific Monte Carlo simulation engine (10,000+ iterations per game), Platt-scaled and isotonic-calibrated against historical outcomes, then sized with the Kelly Criterion plus a 15% Bayesian probability shrinkage. The full methodology is documented at https://app.olympus-bets.com/methodology.

NYY vs TB Prediction & Picks — July 9, 2026

NYY vs TB prediction for July 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TB 3.4 - NYY 3.4. TB is favored with a 50.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 6.7 total runs.

3.4

Projected Score

VS O/U 7.5

NYY

3.4

Projected Score

Win Probability

50.6%

49.4%

TBNYY

-1.5

Run Line (TB)

7.5

Total Line

10,000

Simulations

☑ Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 50.9% (2,789 games)

Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile

NYY

135

Projected

TB 3.4 — NYY 3.4

Actual

TB 4 — NYY 12

Starting Pitcher Matchup

Paul Blackburn R

NYY

SI33%94 mph7% whiff

FC26%92 mph15% whiff

CH17%87 mph27% whiff

Drew Rasmussen R

FC32%90 mph24% whiff

FF27%96 mph23% whiff

SI22%96 mph11% whiff

Weather Impact

Tropicana Field

94°F4 mph windRoof: closed

HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000

Indoor (neutral)

Bullpen Comparison

NYY

3.36ERA

3.71FIP

8.80K/9

3.56BB/9

1.27WHIP

4.35ERA

4.16FIP

8.55K/9

3.50BB/9

1.33WHIP

Betting Edges

RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5

-32.8% EV

-167

TOTAL OVER 7.5

-23.8% EV

-110

TOTAL UNDER 7.5

+15.4% EV

-109

RUN_LINE HOME -1.5

-13.7% EV

+137

F5_ML HOME

-11.8% EV

-175

ML HOME

-10.9% EV

-149

First 5 Innings & NRFI

NYY F5

1.6 runs

36.9% win

TB F5

1.9 runs

44.6% win

F5 Total

3.6

NRFI

63.3%

YRFI

36.7%

Avg 1st Inn Runs

0.73

HR Spotlight

Avg HRs

1.8

Over 0.5 HR

83%

Over 1.5 HR

52%

No HR

17%

Ben Rice NYY30.0%

ISO: 0.347 | Barrel: 15.4% | vs Drew Rasmussen | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x

Junior Caminero TB30.0%

ISO: 0.227 | Barrel: 14.0% | vs Paul Blackburn | Park: 0.92x

Ryan McMahon NYY21.0%

ISO: 0.172 | Barrel: 12.1% | vs Drew Rasmussen | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Paul Blackburn

0.0 K projected

NYY | K/9: 0.0

Drew Rasmussen

0.0 K projected

TB | K/9: 0.0

Injury Report

NYY5 injured

Carlos Rodon SP15-DAY-IL

Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL

Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL

Aaron Judge RF10-DAY-IL

Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL

TB8 injured

Jesse Scholtens RP15-DAY-IL

Steven Matz SP15-DAY-IL

Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL

Jake Fraley RF10-DAY-IL

Manuel Rodriguez RP60-DAY-IL

Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL

+2 more

AI Intelligence Analysis

LEANYELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=318)

Blackburn (2.40 Bayesian ERA, C+ stuff but excellent control) is significantly better than Rasmussen (3.0 ERA, B stuff)—1.6 ERA advantage, sinker-heavy inducing ground balls. Domed Tropicana Field eliminates weather variance, neutralizing any home advantage. NYY injuries (Judge, Stanton out) reduce offensive ceiling, supporting 6.74 model total vs 7.5 market—solid UNDER edge at 15.4% despite YELLOW zone caution.

Key Factors

Blackburn ERA 2.40 vs Rasmussen 3.0 = 1.6 ERA advantage for away pitcher; Blackburn's sinker (33%) + FC (26%) induces weak contact, perfect for suppressed scoring
Domed Tropicana (94.5°F, closed roof, neutral weather) eliminates weather advantage, baseline offense—no environmental boost for either side
NYY injuries: Judge (10-day ribs), Stanton (10-day calf) remove two star bats from lineup—estimated -1.0 to -1.5 run swing on offensive production
Market total 7.5 appears calibrated to normal NYY lineup; adjusted for injuries, 6.74 model is reasonable
UNDER 7.5 shows 15.4% edge with 60.1% model probability vs 39.9% market—meaningful but not extreme value

Risk Factors

YELLOW zone total bets at 50.1% WR (318 samples) suggests market is efficient on totals; 15.4% edge may compress toward game-time
TB's elite closer (FIP 4.16) could limit damage late if deficit develops, making under harder to hit if NYY scores early
Rasmussen at 3.0 ERA is still respectable; not a liability, so BP edge (NYY 3.36 vs TB 4.35) partially offset by starting pitcher quality

PITCHER MISMATCHWEATHER IMPACTTOTALS VALUEYELLOW ZONE

Edge Analysis

Moneyline

TB 50.6%

-13.7 pts

Run Line