CLE vs TB prediction for October 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TB 3.7 - CLE 2.9. TB is favored with a 63.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 6.5 total runs.
TB
3.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
CLE
2.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBCLE
-1.5
Run Line (TB)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 62.7% (4,074 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CLE
135
TB
246
Projected
TB 3.7 — CLE 2.9
Actual
TB 3 — CLE 7
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Foster Griffin L
CLE
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC32%88 mph16% whiff
FF17%92 mph19% whiff
ST15%80 mph27% whiff
Drew Rasmussen R
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC29%90 mph24% whiff
FF28%96 mph24% whiff
SI24%95 mph14% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
72°F5 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
CLE
3.37ERA
3.74FIP
10.02K/9
3.71BB/9
1.23WHIP
TB
3.10ERA
3.78FIP
9.10K/9
2.81BB/9
1.08WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CLE F5
1.5 runs
30.5% win
TB F5
2.1 runs
50.6% win
F5 Total
3.6
NRFI
60.4%
YRFI
39.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.79
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
CLE3 injured
Colin Holderman RP15-DAY-IL
Rhys Hoskins 1B10-DAY-IL
Andrew Walters RPOUT
TB6 injured
Shane McClanahan SPOUT
Jacob Melton LF60-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
Jonathan Heasley RP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Pepiot SP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.