COL vs STL prediction for August 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects STL 4.0 - COL 4.5. COL is favored with a 52.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 8.6 total runs.
STL
4.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
COL
4.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLCOL
-1.5
Run Line (STL)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.5% (3,215 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
COL
346
STL
246
Projected
STL 4.0 — COL 4.5
Actual
STL 7 — COL 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Michael Lorenzen R
COL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
CH20%85 mph30% whiff
SI20%93 mph9% whiff
FF19%94 mph8% whiff
Michael McGreevy R
STL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF25%92 mph11% whiff
CH20%87 mph24% whiff
SI16%91 mph10% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
95°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.085 Total: 1.045
thin air, 6mph out
Bullpen Comparison
COL
4.94ERA
4.30FIP
7.64K/9
3.88BB/9
1.49WHIP
STL
4.33ERA
4.34FIP
7.99K/9
4.18BB/9
1.36WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
COL F5
2.5 runs
44.4% win
STL F5
2.3 runs
40.1% win
F5 Total
4.8
NRFI
54.4%
YRFI
45.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.94
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
COL8 injured
Jaden Hill RP15-DAY-IL
Jose Quintana SP60-DAY-IL
Jeff Criswell RP15-DAY-IL
Chase Dollander SP60-DAY-IL
Welinton Herrera RP60-DAY-IL
McCade Brown SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
STL2 injured
Ramon Urias 3B60-DAY-IL
Max Rajcic RP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -2
A 10.5% model edge favoring the team with a 7.50-ERA starter and a 0.911-quality bullpen (worst in MLB) is a textbook model-overconfidence trap — fade the edge, not the market.
Key Factors
- Lorenzen's 7.50 ERA (away) is one of the worst on the slate vs McGreevy's 3.88 ERA (home) — a massive 3.62-run ERA gap favoring STL
- Model's away ML edge of 10.5% exceeds the calibration engine's 9.0% max_edge_cap for ML — should be capped/flagged, not bet at face value
- Historical data confirms 10-15% edge buckets return only a supportive track record over 30 days — this game sits squarely in that trap historical support
- COL bullpen quality is worst in the league (0.911) with a 7.29 closer ERA — compounds the disadvantage for the Rockies, contradicting the model's away lean entirely
Risk Factors
- This is the textbook 'edge anti-correlated with outcome' scenario: 10.5% edge on the team with the far worse starter (7.50 vs 3.88 ERA) AND the worse bullpen (0.911 quality, 7.29 closer ERA)
- Betting COL ML here fights both the starting pitcher matchup and the bullpen matchup simultaneously
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.