DET vs SF prediction for August 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SF 3.6 - DET 4.2. DET is favored with a 52.0% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.8 total runs.
SF
3.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
DET
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
SFDET
+1.5
Run Line (SF)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.4% (3,215 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
DET
246
SF
246
Projected
SF 3.6 — DET 4.2
Actual
SF 1 — DET 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Troy Melton R
DET
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF36%96 mph18% whiff
FC23%92 mph20% whiff
SL17%87 mph32% whiff
Logan Webb R
SF
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI30%92 mph10% whiff
CH25%86 mph28% whiff
ST19%84 mph22% whiff
Weather Impact
Oracle Park
74°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.072 Total: 1.040
10mph out
Bullpen Comparison
DET
4.37ERA
4.54FIP
8.40K/9
4.33BB/9
1.37WHIP
SF
4.59ERA
4.63FIP
7.10K/9
4.46BB/9
1.48WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
DET F5
2.1 runs
43.7% win
SF F5
1.9 runs
37.6% win
F5 Total
4.0
NRFI
61.2%
YRFI
38.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.76
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
DET8 injured
Brant Hurter RP60-DAY-IL
Justin Verlander SP60-DAY-IL
Wenceel Perez RF60-DAY-IL
Will Vest RP60-DAY-IL
Matt Vierling CF10-DAY-IL
Jack Flaherty SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
SF8 injured
Marcelo Mayer 2B10-DAY-IL
Matt Chapman 3B10-DAY-IL
Victor Bericoto RF10-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
Joel Peguero RP60-DAY-IL
Matt Gage RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
Market correctly favors DET on the back of Melton's excellent 1.71 ERA versus Webb's 4.04 mark, and with no probability gap between model and market, there's no edge to exploit.
Key Factors
- Melton (1.71 ERA, away) is significantly better than Webb (4.04 ERA, home) — model and market both correctly favor DET on this basis
- Oracle Park's park factor of 0.88 is one of the most run-suppressive in MLB, consistent with the modest total projection
- No ML value gap (market actually slightly ahead of the model on DET), so no edge to chase either way
- Oracle's marine layer plus a 9.6mph tailwind creates conflicting signals — normally suppressive but wind direction here nudges HR mult to 1.072
Risk Factors
- Efficiently priced game with no clear model-market disagreement — adding a bet here is pure variance, not edge
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.