FINAL: TB 1 — MIL 4. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected TB 3.4 - MIL 3.5 (TB at 51.1% win probability). TB wins more simulations despite the lower average score. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 6.5. Model projects 6.9 total runs.
TB
3.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
MIL
3.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBMIL
+1.5
Run Line (TB)
6.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.4% (3,146 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIL
245
TB
135
Projected
TB 3.4 — MIL 3.5
Actual
TB 1 — MIL 4
Pick Results
MIL F5 MLf5_mlWIN+0.07u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jacob Misiorowski R
MIL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF63%101 mph35% whiff
FC14%96 mph20% whiff
SL11%92 mph32% whiff
Drew Rasmussen R
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC29%90 mph23% whiff
FF28%96 mph24% whiff
SI23%95 mph13% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
76°F13 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
MIL
2.96ERA
3.35FIP
9.49K/9
3.42BB/9
1.16WHIP
TB
3.10ERA
3.78FIP
9.10K/9
2.81BB/9
1.08WHIP
Betting Edges
F5 UNDER 3.5
-8.9% EV
-141
ML AWAY
-8.1% EV
-139
F5_ML HOME
+6.8% EV
+124
NRFI YRFI
-6.2% EV
+130
ML HOME
+5.7% EV
+127
NRFI NRFI
-5.3% EV
-167
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIL F5
1.8 runs
40.4% win
TB F5
1.8 runs
41.3% win
F5 Total
3.6
NRFI
59.1%
YRFI
40.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.81
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.4
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
68%
No HR
10%
Junior Caminero TB27.5%
ISO: 0.264 | Barrel: 14.3% | vs Jacob Misiorowski | Park: 0.92x
Jake Bauers MIL26.1%
ISO: 0.202 | Barrel: 12.5% | vs Drew Rasmussen | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Ryan Vilade TB23.7%
ISO: 0.149 | Barrel: 9.2% | vs Jacob Misiorowski | Park: 0.92x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jacob Misiorowski
0.0 K projected
MIL | K/9: 0.0
Drew Rasmussen
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIL3 injured
Brian Fitzpatrick RP60-DAY-IL
Quinn Priester SP60-DAY-IL
Angel Zerpa RP60-DAY-IL
TB6 injured
Shane McClanahan SPOUT
Jacob Melton LF60-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
Jonathan Heasley RP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Pepiot SP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -2
Market is correct: the projection's Tampa lean runs against the better arm (Misiorowski 1.87 vs Rasmussen 2.62 ERA, with Rasmussen on short rest) and a bullpen that does not beat Milwaukee's, so the 7.9-pt gap reads as model overconfidence rather than mispricing.
Key Factors
- SP gap favors MIL: Misiorowski 1.87 ERA / 36.3% K rate / A- grade vs Rasmussen 2.62 ERA / 26.2% K rate / B grade. TB holds the pitcher DISADVANTAGE (higher ERA), so the model's Tampa lean is not explained by the starters.
- Rasmussen is on three days' rest after the 12-inning Game 4 context, a short-rest downgrade for TB's only available starter.
- Bullpen: MIL 2.96 ERA / 1.52 quality / 3.46 mop-up vs TB 3.10 ERA / 1.45 quality / 4.42 mop-up. Milwaukee's bullpen is better overall; Tampa's only edge is setup (2.02 ERA vs MIL 2.61).
- Park/weather: Tropicana Field, roof closed, park factor 1.00, weather neutral. No park or weather tail supports a Tampa edge.
- Market gap: no-vig Tampa implied ~43.2% vs model 51.1% (7.9 pts). The ML market is disabled in calibration and the dog_std odds band is in shadow block at a supportive track record vs 44.4% breakeven.
Risk Factors
- Model contradicts SP quality: the favored side (TB) has the 0.75-run worse ERA (2.62 vs 1.87). Per the pitcher attribution rule, this is a data-integrity flag, not a Tampa edge.
- Sim headline (51.1% TB) and edge block (46.6%) do not reconcile, and F5 home prob 41.3% vs F5 edge block 47.7%; the edge numbers cannot be trusted at face value.
- Bullpen fatigue on both sides: Game 4 went 12 innings (TB 4-3), Brewers' Ashby worked the 9th and TB's bullpen absorbed extras. Lineups are unconfirmed, so the workload picture is incomplete.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TB 51.1%
-1.7 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-1.7 pts
Total
6.5
+4.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. This game was simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.