Who is predicted to win SD vs CHC on June 29, 2026?

Based on 10,000 Pitch Sim v5.3 Monte Carlo simulations, CHC is favored with a 56.0% win probability. The simulation's mean projected score is CHC 5.8 - SD 5.3.

How does Olympus Bets generate sports predictions?

Every projection is produced by a league-specific Monte Carlo simulation engine (10,000+ iterations per game), Platt-scaled and isotonic-calibrated against historical outcomes, then sized with the Kelly Criterion plus a 15% Bayesian probability shrinkage. The full methodology is documented at https://app.olympus-bets.com/methodology.

SD vs CHC Prediction & Picks — June 29, 2026

SD vs CHC prediction for June 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CHC 5.8 - SD 5.3. CHC is favored with a 56.0% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 11.5. Model projects 11.1 total runs.

CHC

5.8

Projected Score

VS O/U 11.5

5.3

Projected Score

Win Probability

56.0%

44.0%

CHCSD

-1.5

Run Line (CHC)

11.5

Total Line

10,000

Simulations

☑ Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.1% (2,512 games)

Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile

357

CHC

468

Starting Pitcher Matchup

R TBD

Shota Imanaga L

CHC

FF43%92 mph18% whiff

FS33%83 mph41% whiff

ST14%82 mph35% whiff

Weather Impact

Wrigley Field

91°F14 mph wind

HR: 1.015 Total: 1.005

thin air, 7mph in

Bullpen Comparison

3.15ERA

3.66FIP

8.41K/9

3.44BB/9

1.23WHIP

CHC

4.04ERA

5.13FIP

8.17K/9

4.04BB/9

1.34WHIP

Betting Edges

RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5

-34.0% EV

-147

TOTAL OVER 11.5

-9.4% EV

-114

ML HOME

-6.7% EV

-154

RUN_LINE HOME -1.5

-5.5% EV

+122

TOTAL UNDER 11.5

+0.5% EV

-106

ML AWAY

-0.1% EV

+130

First 5 Innings & NRFI

SD F5

3.0 runs

40.1% win

CHC F5

3.5 runs

49.1% win

F5 Total

6.4

NRFI

45.8%

YRFI

54.2%

Avg 1st Inn Runs

1.37

HR Spotlight

Avg HRs

3.7

Over 0.5 HR

97%

Over 1.5 HR

87%

No HR

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

0.0 K projected

SD | K/9: 0.0

Shota Imanaga

0.0 K projected

CHC | K/9: 0.0

Injury Report

SD8 injured

German Marquez SP15-DAY-IL

Matt Waldron SP15-DAY-IL

Ty France 1BDAY-TO-DAY

Nick Pivetta SP60-DAY-IL

Jake Cronenworth 2B7-DAY IL

Lucas Giolito SP15-DAY-IL

+2 more

CHC8 injured

Matt Shaw RFDAY-TO-DAY

Daniel Palencia RP15-DAY-IL

Hoby Milner RP15-DAY-IL

Jameson Taillon SP15-DAY-IL

Phil Maton RP15-DAY-IL

Ben Brown RP15-DAY-IL

+2 more

Edge Analysis

Moneyline

CHC 56.0%

-5.5 pts

Run Line

-1.5

-5.5 pts

Total

11.5

+0.5 pts

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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →

SD vs CHC Prediction