TB vs CLE prediction for October 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CLE 3.2 - TB 3.6. TB is favored with a 53.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 6.5. Model projects 6.8 total runs.
CLE
3.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
TB
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
CLETB
-1.5
Run Line (CLE)
6.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.8% (4,074 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
246
CLE
135
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Griffin Jax R
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST25%88 mph32% whiff
CH23%91 mph40% whiff
SI22%95 mph9% whiff
Gavin Williams R
CLE
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST28%88 mph43% whiff
FF28%98 mph28% whiff
KC22%83 mph31% whiff
Weather Impact
Progressive Field
60°F3 mph wind
HR: 1.022 Total: 1.012
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
TB
3.10ERA
3.78FIP
9.10K/9
2.81BB/9
1.08WHIP
CLE
3.37ERA
3.74FIP
10.02K/9
3.71BB/9
1.23WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
1.9 runs
42.4% win
CLE F5
1.8 runs
38.3% win
F5 Total
3.8
NRFI
59.4%
YRFI
40.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.82
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
TB6 injured
Shane McClanahan SPOUT
Jacob Melton LF60-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
Jonathan Heasley RP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Pepiot SP60-DAY-IL
CLE3 injured
Colin Holderman RP15-DAY-IL
Rhys Hoskins 1B10-DAY-IL
Andrew Walters RPOUT
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.