FINAL: PHI 7 — TB 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected PHI 3.5 - TB 3.8 (TB at 52.0% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 6.5. Model projects 7.3 total runs.
PHI
3.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
TB
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
PHITB
-1.5
Run Line (PHI)
6.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
TB L4PHI
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (4,023 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
246
PHI
245
Projected
PHI 3.5 — TB 3.8
Actual
PHI 7 — TB 3
Pick Results
TB F5 MLf5_mlLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Nick Martinez R
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI32%92 mph8% whiff
CH26%78 mph29% whiff
FC22%89 mph12% whiff
Zack Wheeler R
PHI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF36%95 mph26% whiff
FS16%87 mph45% whiff
SI16%95 mph9% whiff
Weather Impact
Citizens Bank Park
64°F17 mph wind
HR: 0.933 Total: 0.959
17mph in
Bullpen Comparison
TB
3.35ERA
3.77FIP
9.05K/9
2.76BB/9
1.12WHIP
PHI
4.51ERA
3.91FIP
10.11K/9
3.54BB/9
1.38WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML HOME
-20.0% EV
-208
F5_ML AWAY
+19.4% EV
+160
ML AWAY
+11.7% EV
+172
ML HOME
-9.8% EV
-189
TOTAL UNDER 6.5
-9.7% EV
-112
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-9.2% EV
+134
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
2.0 runs
42.2% win
PHI F5
1.9 runs
39.6% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
55.2%
YRFI
44.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.88
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
89%
Over 1.5 HR
64%
No HR
11%
Kyle Schwarber PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.279 | Barrel: 15.5% | vs Nick Martinez | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Junior Caminero TB26.1%
ISO: 0.264 | Barrel: 14.3% | vs Zack Wheeler | Park: 1.02x
Victor Mesa Jr. TB21.2%
ISO: 0.275 | Barrel: 13.9% | vs Zack Wheeler | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Nick Martinez
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Zack Wheeler
0.0 K projected
PHI | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Griffin Jax SPDAY-TO-DAY
Chandler Simpson LFDAY-TO-DAY
Shane McClanahan SP15-DAY-IL
Garrett Cleavinger RP15-DAY-IL
Tyler Wells RP15-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
PHI7 injured
Luis Arraez 2BOUT
Jonathan Bowlan RPDAY-TO-DAY
Caleb Kilian RP60-DAY-IL
Felix Reyes LF60-DAY-IL
Brad Keller RP60-DAY-IL
Johan Rojas CF60-DAY-IL
+1 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TB 52.0%
-9.2 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-9.2 pts
Total
6.5
+4.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.