TB vs SEA prediction for August 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SEA 2.9 - TB 3.3. TB is favored with a 53.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 6.1 total runs.
SEA
2.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
TB
3.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
SEATB
+1.5
Run Line (SEA)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.5% (3,215 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
135
SEA
135
Projected
SEA 2.9 — TB 3.3
Actual
SEA 1 — TB 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Ian Seymour L
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
CH30%83 mph35% whiff
FF26%92 mph21% whiff
ST23%81 mph30% whiff
Emerson Hancock R
SEA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF39%95 mph20% whiff
SI23%95 mph10% whiff
ST16%77 mph34% whiff
Weather Impact
T-Mobile Park
69°F4 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.020 Total: 1.010
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
TB
3.50ERA
3.98FIP
8.97K/9
2.88BB/9
1.11WHIP
SEA
3.31ERA
3.87FIP
9.00K/9
3.36BB/9
1.27WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
1.6 runs
39.0% win
SEA F5
1.6 runs
38.6% win
F5 Total
3.2
NRFI
68.5%
YRFI
31.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.60
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Griffin Jax SP15-DAY-IL
Ben Williamson 2B10-DAY-IL
Jake Fraley RF60-DAY-IL
Shane McClanahan SP15-DAY-IL
Cole Sulser RP15-DAY-IL
Manuel Rodriguez RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SEA8 injured
Cooper Criswell RP60-DAY-IL
J.P. Crawford SS10-DAY-IL
Carlos Vargas RP60-DAY-IL
Cole Wilcox RP15-DAY-IL
Luke Raley RF10-DAY-IL
Will Wilson 3B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN
Model favors TB despite Hancock's superior ERA because of team-strength factors, but the real signal in this game is the low-scoring environment: NRFI at 9.4% edge and F5 UNDER at 11.0% edge both point the same direction in T-Mobile's suppressive 68.6F marine-layer conditions.
Key Factors
- Model favors TB slightly despite Seymour's higher ERA (4.61) vs Hancock's 3.60 — edge is driven by TB's overall roster strength/recent form (completed a series sweep of SEA per recent results), not a starter edge
- ML prob edge is a negligible 0.6 points — no clean directional play here
- NRFI edge of 9.4% (model 64.0%) and F5 UNDER edge of 11.0% are both strong signals given T-Mobile Park's pitcher-friendly 68.6F marine-layer conditions and park factor of 0.89
- Total UNDER edge of 6.9% supports the low-scoring environment thesis independent of the ML pick
Risk Factors
- ML edge is essentially zero — don't force a side bet here
- Total market currently disabled in calibration — treat UNDER signal as context, not standing play
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.