TEX vs CLE prediction for June 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CLE 3.7 - TEX 3.3. CLE is favored with a 54.8% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.0 total runs.
CLE
3.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
TEX
3.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
CLETEX
-1.5
Run Line (CLE)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.0% (2,512 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TEX
135
CLE
246
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Tyler Alexander L
TEX
CH26%84 mph21% whiff
FC24%88 mph16% whiff
SI22%91 mph7% whiff
Parker Messick L
CLE
FF31%94 mph26% whiff
CH25%86 mph38% whiff
SI17%92 mph8% whiff
Weather Impact
Progressive Field
86°F4 mph wind
HR: 1.063 Total: 1.033
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
TEX
3.60ERA
4.14FIP
7.63K/9
3.27BB/9
1.23WHIP
CLE
3.52ERA
3.55FIP
10.51K/9
3.50BB/9
1.23WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-39.1% EV
-182
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-12.3% EV
-115
F5_ML HOME
-11.0% EV
-139
ML HOME
-6.2% EV
-143
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-5.4% EV
+150
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+3.5% EV
-105
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TEX F5
1.8 runs
41.3% win
CLE F5
1.9 runs
42.2% win
F5 Total
3.8
NRFI
59.1%
YRFI
40.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.84
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.7
Over 0.5 HR
81%
Over 1.5 HR
51%
No HR
19%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Tyler Alexander
0.0 K projected
TEX | K/9: 0.0
Parker Messick
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TEX8 injured
Jordan Montgomery SP60-DAY-IL
Chris Martin RP15-DAY-IL
Wyatt Langford LF10-DAY-IL
Cody Freeman 3B10-DAY-IL
Jack Leiter SP15-DAY-IL
Danny Jansen C10-DAY-IL
+2 more
CLE4 injured
Angel Martinez LF10-DAY-IL
Tanner Burns SPDAY-TO-DAY
Jose Ramirez 3B10-DAY-IL
Carlos Hernandez RPDAY-TO-DAY
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CLE 54.8%
-5.4 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-5.4 pts
Total
7.5
+3.5 pts
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →