FINAL: TB 3 — TEX 0. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected TB 3.5 - TEX 3.0 (TB at 54.5% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 6.4 total runs.
TB
3.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
TEX
3.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBTEX
-1.5
Run Line (TB)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.5% (3,082 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TEX
135
TB
245
Projected
TB 3.5 — TEX 3.0
Actual
TB 3 — TEX 0
Pick Results
TEX @ TB NRFInrfiLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
MacKenzie Gore L
TEX
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF45%95 mph21% whiff
CU20%82 mph28% whiff
CH11%87 mph35% whiff
Casey Legumina R
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF40%93 mph22% whiff
SI20%93 mph6% whiff
ST14%80 mph32% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
81°F11 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
TEX
4.46ERA
4.33FIP
7.96K/9
3.27BB/9
1.30WHIP
TB
3.89ERA
4.07FIP
8.87K/9
3.13BB/9
1.19WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-42.1% EV
-182
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-25.9% EV
-115
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+17.8% EV
-105
F5_ML AWAY
-10.1% EV
+110
F5 UNDER 4.5
+8.0% EV
-145
ML HOME
-6.1% EV
-143
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TEX F5
1.5 runs
33.4% win
TB F5
2.0 runs
46.6% win
F5 Total
3.5
NRFI
61.1%
YRFI
38.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.76
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
88%
Over 1.5 HR
62%
No HR
12%
Ryan Vilade TB30.0%
ISO: 0.229 | Barrel: 12.2% | vs MacKenzie Gore | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Junior Caminero TB30.0%
ISO: 0.248 | Barrel: 15.2% | vs MacKenzie Gore | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Jake Burger TEX25.2%
ISO: 0.178 | Barrel: 11.0% | vs Casey Legumina | Park: 0.92x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
MacKenzie Gore
0.0 K projected
TEX | K/9: 0.0
Casey Legumina
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TEX8 injured
Corey Seager SS10-DAY-IL
Jordan Montgomery SP60-DAY-IL
Josh Jung 3B10-DAY-IL
Cody Bradford SP60-DAY-IL
Jack Leiter SP15-DAY-IL
Chris Martin RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
TB7 injured
Manuel Rodriguez RP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
Jake Fraley RF10-DAY-IL
Steven Wilson RP60-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
Jonathan Heasley RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Home TB has pitcher advantage (Legumina 4.27 ERA vs Gore 5.21 ERA), market prices home -142 reasonably (58.8% implied vs model 54.5%). UNDER 7.5 edge at 17.8% is moderate but actionable — closed roof eliminates weather variance. Lean under at 0.75u.
Key Factors
- Pitcher advantage home: Legumina 4.27 ERA (B- grade) vs Gore 5.21 ERA (B- grade) = 0.94 ERA gap favors home
- UNDER edge 17.8%: model 6.4 vs market 7.5 = 1.1 run gap. historical support historical WR reasonable for moderate edge.
- Closed roof (Tropicana Field): eliminates weather variability, makes total projection more stable and reliable
- Temperature 80.9°F, wind neutral: no runs inflation from conditions
- Moderate edge (not extreme): 17.8% edge avoids the 20%+ trap historical support
Risk Factors
- Closed roof advantage could be mispriced by market — some bettors underweight neutral weather
- Gore (5.21 ERA) could outpitch Legumina on any day; pitcher variance within normal range
- Under totals historically underperform in 10-15% edge range (calibration shows some underperformance)
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TB 54.5%
-1.3 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-1.3 pts
Total
7.5
+17.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.