Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers prediction for October 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Los Angeles Chargers 21.6 - Denver Broncos 20.6. Los Angeles Chargers is favored with a 52.7% win probability. The spread is 3.5 and the total is 42.0.
Los Angeles Chargers
21.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 42.0
Denver Broncos
20.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
Los Angeles ChargersDenver Broncos
+3.5
Spread (Los Angeles Chargers)
42.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 50.1% (408 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Denver Broncos
132128
Los Angeles Chargers
142229
Market Lines
Spread
Los Angeles Chargers +3.5
Total
42.0
Game Conditions
Overcast
69°F9 mph wind
Model Edge
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NFL Football Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded NFL 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the NFL 2026 season report card.