Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots prediction for October 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects New England Patriots 23.4 - Las Vegas Raiders 19.4. New England Patriots is favored with a 61.8% win probability. The spread is -3.5 and the total is 45.5.
New England Patriots
23.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 45.5
Las Vegas Raiders
19.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
New England PatriotsLas Vegas Raiders
-3.5
Spread (New England Patriots)
45.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 62.1% (408 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Las Vegas Raiders
121927
New England Patriots
162331
Market Lines
Spread
New England Patriots -3.5
Total
45.5
Game Conditions
Overcast
59°F9 mph wind
Model Edge
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NFL Football Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded NFL 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the NFL 2026 season report card.