Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos prediction for November 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Denver Broncos 24.5 - Kansas City Chiefs 21.7. Denver Broncos is favored with a 58.8% win probability. The spread is 1.5 and the total is 41.0.
Denver Broncos
24.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 41.0
Kansas City Chiefs
21.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
Denver BroncosKansas City Chiefs
+1.5
Spread (Denver Broncos)
41.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.2% (448 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Kansas City Chiefs
142229
Denver Broncos
172432
Market Lines
Spread
Denver Broncos +1.5
Total
41.0
Game Conditions
Overcast
65°F2 mph wind
Model Edge
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NFL Football Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded NFL 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the NFL 2026 season report card.