New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins prediction for November 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Miami Dolphins 20.2 - New England Patriots 26.5. New England Patriots is favored with a 69.1% win probability. The spread is 7.5 and the total is 44.5.
Miami Dolphins
20.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 44.5
New England Patriots
26.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
Miami DolphinsNew England Patriots
+7.5
Spread (Miami Dolphins)
44.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 68.5% (448 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
New England Patriots
192634
Miami Dolphins
132027
Market Lines
Spread
Miami Dolphins +7.5
Total
44.5
Game Conditions
Mostly Clear
84°F11 mph wind
Model Edge
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NFL Football Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded NFL 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the NFL 2026 season report card.