Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots prediction for September 20, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects New England Patriots 24.3 - Pittsburgh Steelers 18.2. New England Patriots is favored with a 68.5% win probability. The spread is -5.0 and the total is 41.5.
New England Patriots
24.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 41.5
Pittsburgh Steelers
18.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
New England PatriotsPittsburgh Steelers
-5.0
Spread (New England Patriots)
41.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 71.8% (320 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Pittsburgh Steelers
111825
New England Patriots
172432
Market Lines
Spread
New England Patriots -5.0
Total
41.5
Game Conditions
Overcast
64°F9 mph wind
Model Edge
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NFL Football Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →