ANA vs VGK prediction for May 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects VGK 3.12 - ANA 3.01. VGK is favored with a 54.0% win probability. The spread is -1.5 and the total is 6.5.
VGK
3.12
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
ANA
3.01
Projected Score
Win Probability
VGKANA
-1.5
Spread (VGK)
6.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 48.7% (1,083 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
ANA
1.93.04.1
VGK
2.03.14.2
Projected
VGK 3.12 — ANA 3.01
Actual
VGK 3 — ANA 2
Game Odds
VGK ML
-164
ANA ML
+136
Puck Line
-1.5
Total
6.5
Edge Detail
VGK Edge
-8.1%
ANA Edge
+3.6%
Projected Total
6.12
-0.38 vs line
Goalie Matchup
Lukas Dostal
23-233.12 GAA88.8% SV
Akira Schmid
2-02.83 GAA88.2% SV
Special Teams
Power Play
Penalty Kill
90% Confidence: 51.0% – 52.6% home win probability
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
VGK 54.0%
-8.1 pts
Spread
-1.5
-8.1 pts
Total
6.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NHL Hockey Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →