ANA vs VGK prediction for May 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects VGK 3.12 - ANA 3.01. VGK is favored with a 54.0% win probability. The spread is -1.5 and the total is 6.5.
VGK
3.12
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
ANA
3.01
Projected Score
Win Probability
VGKANA
-1.5
Spread (VGK)
6.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.0% (1,083 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
ANA
1.93.04.1
VGK
2.03.14.2
Projected
VGK 3.12 — ANA 3.01
Actual
VGK 3 — ANA 2
Game Odds
VGK ML
-164
ANA ML
+136
Puck Line
-1.5
Total
6.5
Edge Detail
VGK Edge
-8.1%
ANA Edge
+3.6%
Projected Total
6.12
-0.38 vs line
Goalie Matchup
Lukas Dostal
23-233.12 GAA88.8% SV
Akira Schmid
2-02.83 GAA88.2% SV
Special Teams
Power Play
Penalty Kill
90% Confidence: 51.0% – 52.6% home win probability
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
VGK 54.0%
-8.1 pts
Spread
-1.5
-8.1 pts
Total
6.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NHL Hockey Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →