FINAL: ANA 3 — FLA 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected ANA 3.63 - FLA 3.0 (ANA at 51.1% win probability). The spread is 1.5 and the total is 6.5.
ANA
3.63
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
FLA
3.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
ANAFLA
+1.5
Spread (ANA)
6.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
FLA L5ANA W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.1% (1,215 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
FLA
1.93.04.1
ANA
2.53.64.7
Projected
ANA 3.63 — FLA 3.0
Actual
ANA 3 — FLA 2
Pick Results
ANA MLmlWIN+0.57u
ANA MLmlWIN+0.57u
Game Odds
ANA ML
+120
FLA ML
-142
Puck Line
+1.5
Total
6.5
Edge Detail
ANA Edge
+5.6%
FLA Edge
-9.7%
Projected Total
6.63
+0.13 vs line
Goalie Matchup
Jacob Markstrom
23-190.00 GAA100.0% SV
Lukas Dostal
30-203.00 GAA90.0% SV
Special Teams
Power Play
Penalty Kill
90% Confidence: 57.9% – 59.5% home win probability
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
ANA home dog at +110 offers value because the market's FLA favorite pricing (-135) overweights a one-game-sample Markstrom.1.0 SV% that is highly likely to regress, while ANA gets a 3-vs-2 rest edge and home ice.
Key Factors
- Goalie samples are both 1 GP: Markstrom 1.0 SV% (likely to regress) vs Dostal.90 SV%/3.0 GAA — gap is overstated by small samples
- ANA home ice + slight rest edge (2 days vs FLA's 3, but FLA traveled 2,297 miles cross-country) — travel fatigue could matter for FLA more than rest advantage suggests
- Home dog combo historical support shows strong a supportive track record in the 0-5% edge / 50-55% prob bucket — favorable historical context
- Both archetypes are 'balanced' style — no material tempo mismatch to favor either side
- Model sees near coin-flip (51.06% ANA) while market prices FLA at 54.5% implied — a modest 3.4pp gap, not an extreme disagreement
Risk Factors
- FLA's roster (Tkachuk x2, Barkov, Bennett, Reinhart, Marchand) is objectively one of the strongest in the league — talent gap is real and could override small-sample goalie noise
- Markstrom may simply be an elite goalie having a normal elite start, not an overrated sample
- Cross-country travel fatigue for FLA (2,297 mi) is a soft factor, not confirmed to meaningfully suppress play
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
ANA 51.1%
+5.6 pts
Spread
+1.5
+5.6 pts
Total
6.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NHL Hockey Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded NHL 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the NHL 2026 season report card.