FINAL: WSH 4 — FLA 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected WSH 3.37 - FLA 3.39 (FLA at 50.1% win probability). The spread is -1.5 and the total is 6.5.
WSH
3.37
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
FLA
3.39
Projected Score
Win Probability
WSHFLA
-1.5
Spread (WSH)
6.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
FLA L5WSH W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 48.4% (1,412 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
FLA
2.33.44.5
WSH
2.33.44.5
Projected
WSH 3.37 — FLA 3.39
Actual
WSH 4 — FLA 3
Pick Results
Over 6.5totalWIN+0.56u
Game Odds
WSH ML
-120
FLA ML
+106
Puck Line
-1.5
Total
6.5
Edge Detail
WSH Edge
-4.6%
FLA Edge
+1.6%
Projected Total
6.76
+0.26 vs line
Goalie Matchup
Jacob Markstrom
23-192.57 GAA88.5% SV
Logan Thompson
31-213.22 GAA88.7% SV
Special Teams
Power Play
Penalty Kill
90% Confidence: 48.4% – 50.1% home win probability
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -2
The game started at 17:40Z and Vilmanis was hurt in-game, so the pregame lines are stale. It was also a coin flip (model 50.1/49.9, Schmid.887 vs Thompson.883) with only an away-dog side.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
FLA 50.1%
-4.6 pts
Spread
-1.5
-4.6 pts
Total
6.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NHL Hockey Monte Carlo engine. This game was simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded NHL 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the NHL 2026 season report card.