FINAL: PIT 6 — MTL 5. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected PIT 3.43 - MTL 3.18 (PIT at 50.7% win probability).
PIT
3.43
Projected Score
VS
MTL
3.18
Projected Score
Win Probability
PITMTL
N/A
Spread
N/A
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
MTL L5PIT L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.0% (1,201 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
MTL
2.13.24.3
PIT
2.33.44.5
Projected
PIT 3.43 — MTL 3.18
Actual
PIT 6 — MTL 5
Pick Results
PIT MLmlWIN+0.55u
Goalie Matchup
Jakub Dobes
29-102.01 GAA92.9% SV
Arturs Silovs
19-120.00 GAA100.0% SV
Special Teams
Power Play
Penalty Kill
90% Confidence: 53.1% – 54.8% home win probability
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Silovs' perfect 1.000 SV% debut plus PIT's 7-0 goal differential and speed_transition tempo edge support a home favorite ML lean despite market pricing MTL close.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PIT 50.7%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NHL Hockey Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded NHL 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the NHL 2026 season report card.