FINAL: NYI 6 — NJD 0. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected NYI 3.16 - NJD 2.65 (NYI at 50.3% win probability).
NYI
3.16
Projected Score
VS
NJD
2.65
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYINJD
N/A
Spread
N/A
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
NJD L4NYI
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 47.3% (1,201 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
NJD
1.62.63.7
NYI
2.13.24.2
Projected
NYI 3.16 — NJD 2.65
Actual
NYI 6 — NJD 0
Pick Results
NYI MLmlWIN+0.55u
Goalie Matchup
Jake Allen
17-171.89 GAA92.0% SV
Ilya Sorokin
29-242.07 GAA92.3% SV
Special Teams
Power Play
Penalty Kill
90% Confidence: 57.0% – 58.7% home win probability
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Confirmed elite Sorokin (.923 SV%) against unconfirmed NJD rookie-tier Daws is a real goaltending edge the market's NJD-favorite pricing doesn't fully respect.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYI 50.3%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NHL Hockey Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded NHL 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the NHL 2026 season report card.