FINAL: DET 4 — NJD 5. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected DET 3.19 - NJD 2.62 (DET at 56.7% win probability).
DET
3.19
Projected Score
VS
NJD
2.62
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETNJD
N/A
Spread
N/A
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.6% (1,241 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
NJD
1.52.63.7
DET
2.13.24.3
Projected
DET 3.19 — NJD 2.62
Actual
DET 4 — NJD 5
Pick Results
DET MLmlLOSS-0.50u
Goalie Matchup
Jake Allen
17-172.65 GAA89.6% SV
John Gibson
29-223.43 GAA86.2% SV
Special Teams
Power Play
Penalty Kill
90% Confidence: 58.5% – 60.2% home win probability
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
DET 56.7%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NHL Hockey Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded NHL 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the NHL 2026 season report card.