FINAL: SJS 3 — BOS 6. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected SJS 2.82 - BOS 3.71 (BOS at 55.6% win probability). The spread is 1.5 and the total is 6.5.
SJS
2.82
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
BOS
3.71
Projected Score
Win Probability
SJSBOS
+1.5
Spread (SJS)
6.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
BOS W4SJS L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 50.0% (1,241 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
BOS
2.63.74.8
SJS
1.72.83.9
Projected
SJS 2.82 — BOS 3.71
Actual
SJS 3 — BOS 6
Pick Results
BOS MLmlWIN+0.48u
BOS MLmlWIN+0.48u
Game Odds
SJS ML
+114
BOS ML
-135
Puck Line
+1.5
Total
6.5
Edge Detail
SJS Edge
-2.3%
BOS Edge
-1.9%
Projected Total
6.53
+0.03 vs line
Goalie Matchup
Jeremy Swayman
31-181.79 GAA93.2% SV
Yaroslav Askarov
21-203.71 GAA86.0% SV
Special Teams
Power Play
Penalty Kill
90% Confidence: 35.5% – 37.1% home win probability
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
BOS 55.6%
-2.3 pts
Spread
+1.5
-2.3 pts
Total
6.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NHL Hockey Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded NHL 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the NHL 2026 season report card.