AEK Athens vs Shakhtar Donetsk prediction for October 14, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Shakhtar Donetsk 1.37 - AEK Athens 1.26. Shakhtar Donetsk is favored with a 38.3% win probability. Expected total goals: 2.6..
Shakhtar Donetsk
1.37
Projected Goals
VS
2.6 total
AEK Athens
1.26
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
Shakhtar DonetskDrawAEK Athens
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 70.0% (1,621 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
AEK Athens
0.51.32.0
Shakhtar Donetsk
0.61.42.1
Expected Goals (xG)
Shakhtar Donetsk1.37
AEK Athens1.26
16.9Shots13.9
6.1On Target5.1
5.8Corners5.4
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
91.9%
Over 1.5
74.6%
Over 2.5
49.0%
Over 3.5
27.1%
Under 2.5
51.0%
BTTS
42.8%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
13.2%
1-0
9.2%
2-1
8.6%
0-1
8.4%
0-0
8.0%
Match Context
UCLHigh
Shakhtar Donetsk
2.72
Draw
3.35
AEK Athens
2.76
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded SOCCER 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the SOCCER 2026 season report card.