Atlético Madrid vs VfB Stuttgart prediction for October 20, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects VfB Stuttgart 1.53 - Atlético Madrid 1.85. Atlético Madrid is favored with a 45.2% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.4..
VfB Stuttgart
1.53
Projected Goals
VS
3.4 total
Atlético Madrid
1.85
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
VfB StuttgartDrawAtlético Madrid
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 83.1% (1,739 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Atlético Madrid
1.11.92.6
VfB Stuttgart
0.81.52.3
Projected
VfB Stuttgart 1.53 — Atlético Madrid 1.85
Actual
VfB Stuttgart 1 — Atlético Madrid 1
Expected Goals (xG)
VfB Stuttgart1.53
Atlético Madrid1.85
15.6Shots16.7
5.9On Target6.0
5.6Corners5.7
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
95.9%
Over 1.5
85.7%
Over 2.5
65.7%
Over 3.5
43.8%
Under 2.5
34.3%
BTTS
72.9%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
10.4%
1-2
9.1%
2-1
7.5%
2-2
6.9%
0-2
6.0%
Match Context
UCLHigh
VfB Stuttgart
3.43
Draw
3.94
Atlético Madrid
2.06
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded SOCCER 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the SOCCER 2026 season report card.