Borussia Dortmund vs TSG Hoffenheim prediction for September 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects TSG Hoffenheim 1.58 - Borussia Dortmund 1.38. TSG Hoffenheim is favored with a 40.2% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.0..
TSG Hoffenheim
1.58
Projected Goals
VS
3.0 total
Borussia Dortmund
1.38
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
TSG HoffenheimDrawBorussia Dortmund
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 66.5% (1,390 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Borussia Dortmund
0.61.42.2
TSG Hoffenheim
0.81.62.4
Projected
TSG Hoffenheim 1.58 — Borussia Dortmund 1.38
Actual
TSG Hoffenheim 2 — Borussia Dortmund 3
Expected Goals (xG)
TSG Hoffenheim1.58
Borussia Dortmund1.38
18.1Shots15.2
6.5On Target5.7
6.0Corners5.5
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
95.8%
Over 1.5
79.6%
Over 2.5
54.9%
Over 3.5
34.2%
Under 2.5
45.1%
BTTS
60.9%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
12.5%
2-1
9.0%
1-2
7.9%
1-0
7.1%
2-0
6.5%
Match Context
BUNMedium
TSG Hoffenheim
2.43
Draw
3.39
Borussia Dortmund
2.90
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded SOCCER 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the SOCCER 2026 season report card.