D.C. United vs Toronto FC prediction for October 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Toronto FC 1.89 - D.C. United 1.3. Toronto FC is favored with a 48.4% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.2..
Toronto FC
1.89
Projected Goals
VS
3.2 total
D.C. United
1.3
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
Toronto FCDrawD.C. United
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 65.3% (1,914 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
D.C. United
0.51.32.1
Toronto FC
1.11.92.7
Projected
Toronto FC 1.89 — D.C. United 1.3
Actual
Toronto FC 2 — D.C. United 1
Expected Goals (xG)
Toronto FC1.89
D.C. United1.30
17.1Shots16.7
6.2On Target6.1
5.7Corners5.6
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
95.3%
Over 1.5
83.5%
Over 2.5
62.0%
Over 3.5
39.7%
Under 2.5
38.0%
BTTS
62.3%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
10.9%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
7.4%
1-0
7.2%
1-2
6.7%
Match Context
MLSMedium
Toronto FC
1.93
Draw
3.99
D.C. United
3.77
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. This game was simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded SOCCER 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the SOCCER 2026 season report card.