Who is predicted to win England vs France on July 18, 2026?

Based on 5,000 PBP v16.3 Monte Carlo simulations, France is favored with a 54.4% win probability. The simulation's mean projected score is France 1.85 - England 1.24.

How does Olympus Bets generate sports predictions?

Every projection is produced by a league-specific Monte Carlo simulation engine (5,000+ iterations per game), Platt-scaled and isotonic-calibrated against historical outcomes, then sized with the Kelly Criterion plus a 15% Bayesian probability shrinkage. The full methodology is documented at https://app.olympus-bets.com/methodology.

England vs France Prediction & Picks — July 18, 2026

England vs France prediction for July 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects France 1.85 - England 1.24. France is favored with a 54.4% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.1..

France

1.85

Projected Goals

VS 3.1 total

England

1.24

Projected Goals

Match Outcome Probabilities

54.4%

19%

26.4%

FranceDrawEngland

☑ Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 62.4% (1,138 games)

Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile

England

0.51.22.0

France

1.11.92.6

Expected Goals (xG)

France1.85

England1.24

20.1Shots17.6

7.3On Target6.3

6.3Corners6.0

Goal Probabilities

Over 0.5

97.5%

Over 1.5

78.8%

Over 2.5

56.6%

Over 3.5

44.0%

Under 2.5

43.4%

BTTS

63.2%

Most Likely Scores

1-1

11.5%

2-1

9.8%

2-0

7.9%

1-0

7.7%

1-2

6.5%

Match Context

WCHigh

France

1.87

Draw

4.11

England

4.02

AI Intelligence Analysis

RED ZONE0.4% WR (n=204)

Model shows slight edges on France and England but falls below 8% minimum edge threshold across all bet types; home ML is RED zone (38.7% WR) and system has been 1-3 on premium picks last 14 days, making neutral/pass the high-conviction play despite interesting underlying mismatch on draw probability.

Model probability vs market (France ML): 54.35% model vs 53.48% market = 0.87% edge (below 8% minimum threshold for action)
Draw pricing inefficiency: Market at 24.33% vs model 19.30%, gap of -5.03%, supported by h2h_draw_tendency = 0.0 (zero historical draws France-England); market overvaluing draw by ~500bps
+ 3 more factors with Premium

RED ZONEINSUFFICIENT EDGESYSTEM DRAWDOWNNEUTRAL CONVICTIONHIGH STAKES VARIANCE

🔒Full analysis, risk factors, and recommended action available with PremiumUnlock

Edge Analysis

Moneyline

France 54.4%

Total

3.1

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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →

England vs France Prediction

Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile

Expected Goals (xG)

Goal Probabilities

Most Likely Scores

Match Context

AI Intelligence Analysis

Edge Analysis

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